Scotland's Unrepresentative Election
Most conversations around improving democracy in the UK focus on the fundamental flaws of First Past the Post at Westminster, a system that delivered Keir Starmer a majority of seats on just 33.7% of the vote. Of course, Westminster’s archaic voting system needs to be replaced.
But until recently, the Scottish Parliament has been seen solely as a positive alternative when it comes to the way it elects its representatives. Its Additional Member System (AMS), has two elements: constituency MSPs and list MSPs, the latter allocated from a separate ballot while taking into account constituency seats won by each party to ensure an overall proportional outcome. That's the theory anyway.
There's always been some misalignment of seats and votes at Holyrood for several reasons. But the system has still delivered broadly proportional outcomes without much pushback. However, the 2026 election delivered a discrepancy between seats and votes on a scale not seen before.
First Minister John Swinney was returned to Bute House on the back of the SNP winning 58 seats. In what's often called a proportional system, a first glance suggests a second one isn't needed. But the post-match analysis reveals a notable divergence between seats and votes.
The SNP won 38.2% of the constituency vote and 27.2% of all list votes. This got them 45% of all seats in the Scottish Parliament undoubtedly making this Holyrood's least representative election. The Gallagher Index, a system used to compare proportionality across elections, this time was 13.7, much higher than previous scores in the broadly proportional range between 5 and 10, and significantly higher than in Germany and New Zealand, which both use similar mixed-member systems.
Scotland’s disproportionality is further shown by overhangs, the number of extra seats won by a party compared to what it would have won on a proportional basis determined by the list vote, the intended outcome of AMS. This time, the SNP won 18 of these so-called overhang seats, according to Ballot Box Scotland analysis, vastly more than at any other Scottish election.
So, what's changed? The main driver of this development is a combination of a structural flaw of AMS exposed by a shift in voting patterns. Of the 129 MSPs elected, 73 are elected via First Past the Post. That's more than half, with the remaining 56 elected via that proportional element.
The SNP have dominated constituency seat wins, taking 57 of the 73 available. The party’s vote share is considerably down on 2021, but they have benefitted from four competitive opposition unionist parties doing well but not well enough to beat the SNP other than in a handful of areas. They also had the advantage of the Scottish Greens only standing in six constituencies, making the SNP the primary pro-independence constituency option, and split-ticket voting.
Put simply, the SNP winning a plurality of the constituency vote in a system where constituency seats dominate has led to an outcome where seats don't match votes.
There are several solutions to address this problem. A simple change would be adding new regional list seats to correct this imbalance - an additional two seats per region would result in 73 constituencies and 72 list seats. Alternatively, learning from New Zealand by adding in national corrective seats that only get used in the case of overhangs is one modification that could make a difference.
But while any of these changes would be welcome, they risk not addressing wider issues with AMS such as the continued use of a First Past the Post element and limited voter choice through closed list voting (which can simply be addressed by opening lists to empower voters). Not to mention opportunities to game the system due to the two ballots as Alex Salmond’s Alba attempted to do in 2021.
Adopting the Single Transferable Vote (STV), if designed well, could fix many of these problems. STV provides good representation through multi-member constituencies, empowers voters through ranked voting across different parties and delivers broadly proportional outcomes. Another alternative would be adopting an Open List PR system, similar to those used in Scandinavia.
Whatever the answer is, it's not the status-quo.
This Scottish election must be a wake up call for MSPs that culminates in the two-thirds majority required to upgrade Scotland's elections. Holyrood has a better voting system than Westminster, but the 2026 vote exposed a serious flaw. A full detailed review of Scotland’s democratic foundations leading to system change must happen to improve democracy.
Richard Wood is a better democracy campaigner and founder of Upgrade Holyrood. He was previously an Electoral Reform Society board member.
