The Right-Wing Civil War: Who Will Win the 2029 General Election?
Reform overtook the Conservatives for the first time ever on 13th June 2024, in a YouGov poll for The Times after Nigel Farage announced his return as leader and his candidacy for the Clacton constituency. Reform later lost ground to the Conservatives in the July 2024 General Election but then regained it, following Conservative leadership changes and internal frictions.
Fast forward to the present, and a mid-January 2026 Electoral Calculus MRP poll, shows a seismic shift in polling opinion with Reform in such a commanding lead at 31%, with the Conservatives and Labour trailing at 21% and 17% respectively, that they now look like a government-in-waiting. Indeed in that poll Labour comes 6th and the Lib Dems win more seats, but there’s a long way to go before the next election.
The overall seats picture has Reform on 335 seats, Labour on 41 seats, and the Tories on 92 seats, giving Reform a comfortable majority and mandate to run a new government; Farage becomes PM, perhaps Jenrick, after his traitorous floor-crossing, the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Jenrick’s defection, one of many but certainly the most damaging, has helped validate Reform’s claim to be the standard bearer for the right wing of British politics and the claim that the Conservative Party is done and dusted.
Farage’s wooing, and Badenoch’s brutal sacking of him, were both brilliant political acts in their own rights. The first, to secure real senior cabinet-level experience and head off the ‘lightweight’, ‘one-trick pony’ feel of Reform, and the other to stem the PR damage from such a significant defection, and the ‘sinking ship’ brand attributions that the Conservatives are giving off. But can we really write off the Conservatives this far out from the election?
Founded in 1834, this is a party with a seriously long pedigree. It’s one of the most successful parties in the Western world, based on its ability to win elections, at around two wins to every one for Labour. But just because it’s old, doesn’t mean its owed votes.
To survive, the Conservatives should give up trying to out-Farage Farage. Their path to recovery is not to beat Reform on immigration but on winning back their coveted reputation for economic competence. This won’t be easy after the Truss-Kwarteng debacle crashed the pound, caused a central bank intervention, and incurred an IMF rebuke, but Reform remains vulnerable on its slew of uncosted, populist promises, and no elector wants to end up worse off through the act of voting. Indeed doing so, creates a serious feeling of buyer’s remorse.
A concerted attack on Reform’s penchant for protest versus its ability to provide effective political solutions could resonate with voters. The Tories should consider encouraging tactical anti-Reform voting in those seats where it cannot win, as Electoral Calculus’ MRP vote indicates that this could cost Farage up to 60 seats and, potentially, his majority. This indicates a Tory shift to the centre-right as opposed to the far-right would be more likely to mop up centrist voters from Labour and the Lib Dems, increase their vote-share, and make a Reform win less likely.
For Reform, the trick for them is to maintain the political momentum, but they have to do this for around another 3½ years. That’s aeons in politics, and much could happen in the interim. But this is starting to look like an election for Farage to lose. To ensure that doesn’t happen, he should strengthen the candidate list, better vetting those most likely to embarrass the party. Where Boris won the 2019 general election with support from ‘Red Wall’ voters, Farage need these too. This means winning the support of lower-income workers, moving beyond immigration concerns to solving the issues that matter to this group, by lowering their costs of living. Reform should also reposition itself from projecting itself as a radical party to a party providing effective solutions to very difficult political problems. The shift is subtle but important; it means offering solutions to the key problems Britain is facing beyond immigration. Calling out Trump on his more damaging ideas and showing clear mettle to Putin would help here.
The Reform-Conservative dialectic underpinning the right-wing civil war in British politics is clear: the Tories must focus on maintaining their relevance and Reform must build respectability. The next set of local elections in May 2026 will be critical in determining who’s winning. If Reform takes over many more councils, and particularly at the Conservatives’ expense, the Conservatives could be consigned to the wilderness for many years. On the other hand, if the Conservatives can apologise for not reducing immigration to the level promised and crashing the economy, whilst developing sensible policies to raise the cost-of-living, maintaining national security, and proposing sensible changes to reduce immigration, it will live to fight another day, and might just nix Reform’s winning streak.
Paul Baines is Professor of Political Marketing and Head of Executive Education at the University of Leicester’s School of Business, a co‑director of the Help to Grow programme. He holds advanced degrees from the University of Manchester and other institutions, is a frequent media commentator, and has served in local government including as Mayor of Charnwood.
