Germany’s dominance is waning
The diminution of Mrs Merkel's power is helpful to the UK as it seeks to negotiate its future relationship with the EU on leaving, says John Redwood.
Mrs Merkel has been feted and courted as the de facto leader of the EU for the past decade. Mr Obama was a strong believer in the Euro and EU project, and looked to Mrs Merkel to provide its discipline and to be its voice. Mr Cameron decided Mrs Merkel was the main person he had to win over when he sought to renegotiate the UK's relationship. She did not offer him much, which led to the decisive vote by the UK electorate to leave. It was another of her damaging misjudgements, to go alongside the mistake she made over migration into Germany.
Today Mrs Merkel's power is visibly waning. The UK now has a Brexit government. It sees Mrs Merkel as an obstacle when she blocks early resolution of the residency issues, or when she grandstands telling us we must accept freedom of movement. In the USA President Trump has launched public criticisms of her immigration policy and has said he sees the EU as a "German vehicle". He speaks up for European countries that wish to restore their own identities. Her voting base is also under attack from the anti-Euro anti-migrant AFD party.
The diminution of Mrs Merkel's power is helpful to the UK as it seeks to negotiate its future relationship with the EU on leaving. Mr Trump will be aware of the huge size of Germany's balance of payments surplus, which matches part of the large deficits the USA and UK run up. He wishes to alter this, and is busily seeking to repatriate motor car capacity and investment to the USA given the large stake Germany has in the world car industry.
The German electors will have their say on whether she should continue as Chancellor this autumn. They will also be voting on how big a contribution will Germany provide to the new EU absent its UK paymaster. What is clear is that Mrs Merkel, or any replacement to her, can no longer count on the automatic support of the USA to keep Euro and EU together. Nor can they count on UK cash and support in the Council for lower budgets and better discipline
John Alan Redwood, Baron Redwood, is a British politician and academic who represented Wokingham in Berkshire as Conservative Member of Parliament from 1987 to 2024. Born on 15 June 1951, he served as Secretary of State for Wales under John Major and twice stood unsuccessfully for the Conservative Party leadership during the 1990s. Following his ministerial career, Redwood held positions in the Shadow Cabinets of William Hague and Michael Howard before spending his remaining parliamentary years as a backbencher. Prior to entering Parliament, he earned a doctorate at All Souls College, Oxford and served as Director of the Number 10 Policy Unit under Margaret Thatcher.
A veteran Eurosceptic described in 1993 as a pragmatic Thatcherite, Redwood has been particularly known for his work on economic policy and European matters. He co-chaired the Conservative Party's Policy Review Group on Economic Competitiveness until 2010 and serves as Chief Global Strategist of investment management company Charles Stanley & Co Ltd. Redwood was a prominent supporter of Brexit in the 2016 EU referendum and was a member of the pressure group Leave Means Leave. He writes commentary for Comment Central.
