Bullied Bullies and the New World Order
It is a common trait of bullies that they resort to self-pity; claiming to have been bullied themselves. Yet such psychopathology is found not only in the school playground but in the affairs of nations.
Putin’s narrative justifying the invasion of a peaceful neighbour and attendant war crimes draws heavily on a history of post-Soviet Russia being taken advantage of by the West. When China behaves badly it is apt to invoke its own ‘century of humiliation’. The rulers of a newly confident India hark back to past conquests by Muslim invaders to justify persecuting religious minorities. The Balkans and the Middle East continue to suffer the trauma of bullied bullies who excuse themselves in appeals to their own past suffering.
But the USA? Taken advantage of by the world? Exploited and abused by cheaters; scavengers; plunderers; pillagers; rapists. Really? Trump is a smart politician and seems to have found in the MAGA crowd a deep vein of self-pity for all the unfairness heaped on America: ungrateful. free-riding Europeans; devious Asians who have stolen America’s industry; invading Latinos; even, the dastardly Canadians.
Many countries nurse a mixture of pride and guilt about their history, and their identity. The former colonial powers, like the UK, have had to accept being thrown out of their colonies. Germany and Japan had to come to terms with comprehensive defeat. For sure, the USA has had to come to terms with the genocide of its native inhabitants and slavery. But it can also boast vast achievements: winner of the Cold War; a widely admired ‘shining city on the hill’; creator of the institutions and rules which led to 70 odd years of remarkable global progress; and, still, the undisputed economic and technological leader of the Western world. So why is the Trump bully boy so sorry for himself?
One grievance is partly justified but has nothing to do with the trade war which Trump has unleashed: the long-standing failure of America’s European and Asian allies to pay their share of common defence. After all, the USA has taken on the risk of nuclear incineration which could conceivably be triggered by some miscalculation or mischief made by Europeans in the Baltic or the Balkans. Trump is right to insist that if Europeans won’t pay up, they can’t expect continued protection. But, typically ungracious, he fails to acknowledge that British, Danish, Dutch and other Europeans have given their lives supporting the Americans in their questionable wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Closer to the grievances of the MAGA heartland is America’s demotion from being the manufacturing superpower, displaced initially by Germany and Japan and now by China. All rich countries have deindustrialised, and manufacturing jobs have gone, in part due to overseas competition but overwhelmingly due to labour-saving technology and rising demand for services rather than goods. The truth is, moreover, that the USA like the UK and other Europeans has done very well out of globalisation. To be sure there are genuine complaints about unfair trade practices and there must be legal remedies. That is what bodies like bodies like the World Trade Organisation are for; but Trump has trashed them.
China is the main target for Trump’s tariffs. China has undoubtedly indulged in industrial subsidies and theft of intellectual property as did other countries, including the USA, as they industrialised. China’s climb out of extreme poverty was, also, initially helped by exporting low-cost, labour- intensive industrial goods. But production of these is moving offshore to the likes of Vietnam and Bangladesh. The crushing tariffs imposed by Trump on Vietnam and Bangladesh will not however bring their industrial jobs back to America unless American workers either embrace their low wages or accept much higher prices for consumer goods.
But Trump’s personal bugbear is trade deficits: clear evidence, to him, that poor old America is being ‘ripped off’ by foreigners. The damage done by this complaint is not just that it is economic nonsense but that it conceals a deeper truth: that the USA is able to consume more than it produces over long periods by requiring foreigners to hold dollar IOU’s. The fact that world trade and investment is financed in US dollars gives the USA a dominance which enables it to hurt governments of countries it doesn’t like – Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba – through sanctions. And being able to borrow without limit to sustain a comfortable lifestyle is a privilege other country would dearly love to have. So far, however, the leading emerging powers -China, Russia India, Brazil, Saudi – which have been trying to break America’s currency stranglehold haven’t succeeded. Thanks to Trump, they might.
One unintended consequence of Trump’s erratic and illogical behaviour however is that, by trying to bully the rest of the world through tariffs, it risks losing its more powerful weapon: what has been called the ‘exorbitant privilege’ of having the world’s reserve currency. That is what happens when bullies over-reach themselves.
As for Britain, we must avoid the trap of becoming the bully’s little helper. It will backfire on us. Better to align with the Canadians, the EU and others who are fighting back.
Sir Vince Cable is a former Secretary of State for Business, and led the Liberal Democrats from 2017-19.
