The enemy within or (with)out: Why Burnham is a greater threat to Labour than Reform
It looks like it could be sunshine and rainbows at the Labour conference. Keir Starmer received a welcoming reception to his speech, the Conservatives are dead in the water and there are murmurs of a quiet confidence in Liverpool. But there are two enemies for the Labour leadership. Of course Reform, but there's also a bigger threat – the multifaceted destabilising challenge from Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Manchester who, in reality, will do far more damage than the new turquoise party everyone is talking about.
Yes, Reform are rocketing in the polls, yes they are constantly leading the front pages and yes Nigel Farage is the populist poster-boy for taking on the establishment. Even the burden of a failed Brexit on his shoulders has not been enough to damage his reputation. Yet, until they materialise more than 5 seats in the Commons, Reform remain a protest minority party. For such a small party, Mr. Farage should be able to conduct party management with his eyes closed, yet two out of five have been suspended or resigned for serious misconduct. While they rally the disaffected vote, the barriers of FPTP and two party politics remain firmly in their way. Political parties need infrastructure, regional bases and most importantly, a credible plan for government. Reform is loud but remains challenged as an electoral force.
On the other hand, Burnham is far more de-stabilising. When have Prime Minister’s ever NOT been taken down from within? Think of Liz Truss, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak! Once famously articulated by Winston Churchill when showing a young MP around the House of Commons he looked to the right-hand side and said, ‘That’s the opposition dear boy … The enemy is behind you’. While this exemplifies the realities for Prime Ministers that their biggest challengers come from the inside, the metaphor does face some logistical challenges – Burnham needs to find a path to the Commons.
However, in a media age where image and communication means everything, logistics is a side issue. The Manchester Mayor holds the highest popularity ratings out of any other Labour politician. He enjoys the rare privilege of occupying office whilst remaining popular. Andy Burnham has positioned himself as ‘the people’s champion’ with a strong base in Manchester who stick up for their regional identity against the ‘big institutional power of Whitehall’. In an age where authenticity matters, regional figures are almost set up to capture the attention of the electorate who are looking to get behind a leader that reflects what a real person looks like.
Just take the Labour conference, Burnham was front and centre of the commentary, the main event at many fringe stages and not invited into the hall out of fear of the Labour government. Perhaps even emboldened by this, Burnham is happy to openly call out this ‘climate of fear’. What makes for even more uncomfortable reading for the Labour leadership, is the policy ideas Burnham presents. These are almost always more popular with the Labour membership than the government’s own policies! To list a few: challenging treasury orthodoxy and the bond market, criticising digital ID cards and refusing to rule out re-joining the EU. If this ‘alternative leadership’ could not be clear enough, you only have to read his very own ‘Plan for Britain,’ set out to the New Statesman five days before the Labour conference.
This is exactly why Burnham is more dangerous than Reform. History tells us that it is party division itself that causes the implosion of party leadership. Look at the Corbyn era, Labour’s greatest wounds have always been self-inflicted. Burnham is a figure for the party membership to coalesce around at a time when they are frustrated by the centrist direction of government. That is why the threat of Reform pales in comparison to Burnham.
Reform, in truth, can be managed, with new leadership in the Home Office and a consistent policy line on immigration – the hollowness of Reform’s rhetoric will be exposed. With the help of the Lib Dems, the Greens and (maybe) the Tories, the electorate will be reminded that whatever project Nigel Farage has touched has crashed and burned, whether it's Brexit or UKIP. The cruel immorality of their words will come to light and the cogs of our two-party system will continue to turn.
Against Burnham, what Labour faces is doubt in governing competence, a sense of an alternative and doubt in Starmer. The more Burnham speaks, the more the media listens. And most importantly, Burnham erodes the single most important quality a governing party can hold – unity. But the threats are not separate, Burnham’s destabilisations makes Reform more plausible, disunity provides a credible backdrop for protest voting.
If I have one message for Labour, it is this: Farage is noisy but containable. Burnham is quiet but corrosive and holds onto something far more dangerous – credibility within Labour’s own benches and a platform to project it.
Account Executive and recent politics graduate from the University of Leeds.
