Weekly Covid testing must be reintroduced
The final Office for National Statistics (ONS) weekly Covid Infection Survey was released on Friday, 23 March. Since it was initiated in April 2020 this data had proved a vital resource for health professionals, civil servants, politicians and the media.
Axing the Survey in March – just as we are scrapping the testing of people arriving from China and while Covid levels are again climbing in the north of England and amongst the over 75s – could come to be looked back on as a very short-sighted decision.
Widely acknowledged as the ‘Gold Standard’, the Survey provided an invaluable source of information every Friday, revealing vital information on the latest infection rates, the arrival of new strains and how Covid was impacting different age groups and regions.
The Government’s own Health Security Agency (UKHSA) itself acknowledged:
‘The results have helped to provide vital weekly data on virus positivity levels across the UK, details on new variants, the characteristics of those who had the virus and their antibody levels and details of Long Covid prevalence. This helped develop an understanding of Covid-19 and inform government decision-making throughout the pandemic.’
Despite the vital importance of the survey, in January it was revealed that funding for the scheme would not be continued beyond March. This begged the question: had it become something of an inconvenient truth for politicians anxious to put Covid behind them, regardless of the potential danger of new strains ahead?
Last year, following a public outcry, the Government backtracked on its first bid to axe the survey. This year there was no such change of heart. Perhaps tellingly, the Government’s statement announcing its closure said:
‘The approach to Covid-19 surveillance is being actively reviewed by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to ensure it is proportionate, cost effective and considered alongside how we monitor a range of other infectious diseases that present a similar risk to the public’s health.’
Cost effectiveness should never have been a key factor in the continuation of this survey. Covid-19 is not a bad cold nor even the flu; it is a new virus whose longer-term impact we are still coming to terms with. People are still dying and being hospitalised every week because of this virus, and long Covid currently appears just as likely to be caused by Omicron-variant infections as any previous strain of the virus.
The penultimate survey release, for the week ending 16 March, revealed the estimated percentage of people testing positive for Covid increased in the Northwest, Yorkshire and The Humber and cases in people aged over 70 across the UK also climbed. It estimated 1,322,000 people in England – 2.36% of the population or around 1 in 40 people – currently had the virus.
In Wales, the estimated number of people testing positive for Covid-19 was 68,200 – 2.21% of the population or around 1 in 45 people. In Northern Ireland, the estimated number of people testing positive was 26,600 – 1.45% of the population or around 1 in 70 people. In Scotland, the estimated number of people testing positive was 105,100 – 2% of the population or around 1 in 50 people.
Looking at those numbers, who would decide that it was safe to go ahead with scrapping the survey the next week? It’s true that Covid mutates no faster than many other viruses. However, it’s now thought likely that it does have ‘mutational sprints’ over relatively short periods. During one of these sprints, it’s possible than the virus may mutate four times faster than normal for a few weeks. The problem is that these mutations create new variants and sub-variants – such as Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 – which prove particularly effective at reinfecting people who have had previous strains.
Without the weekly ONS data, it will be far harder to see the next wave thundering down the track towards us, until it actually hits. That means medical professionals, and everyone involved in planning for new outbreaks, are likely to get far less advanced warning. Axing the weekly ONS Covid Infection Survey may be a decision the Government will come to regret.
Dr Quinton Fivelman is Chief Scientific Officer at London Medical Laboratory. LML was formed in 2016 to provide pathology testing services to patients, pharmacies, doctors and clinics, nationwide.
