Sleepy Joe must not get complacent. Here's how Trump can still win
One week until the Presidential Election and nothing is certain. Trump's victory is undoubtedly possible; however, it rests on the Hispanic and African-American voters, the senate race, and how Biden handles the final week of his campaign, writes Tom Bromwich.
There is one week left to go until President Trump's fate is sealed and his path to success looks narrow and heavily reliant on luck. Democrats have amassed historically large vote-by-mail leads, according to 'Hawkfish', a data analytics firm's voting model. Biden leads Trump 16 per cent in Arizona, 24 per cent in Michigan, 14 per cent in North Carolina, 22 per cent in Wisconsin, and by an eye-popping 43 per cent in Pennsylvania. In each state, Democrats are thumping Republicans by running up the margins with low propensity, frequent, and new voters. What is the key takeaway from this? Trump could still conceivably win.
The Democratic vote-by-mail and early voting margins are entirely predictable. Only 21 per cent of Republicans will opt to vote my mail with 9 per cent using early vote 'drop boxes', starkly contrasting Democrats according to a Washington Post poll in September. However, Trump will need significantly high turnout in his favour come election day to net wins in crucial states. Figures released by Ipsos MORI show that 86 per cent of Republicans are 'certain to vote', with 67 per cent 'excited' to do so. On the flip side, 89 per cent of Democrats are 'certain to vote', yet 72 per cent are 'excited'. At face value it seems as though Trump is suffering from an enthusiasm gap, however Trump only needs marginally higher turnout and enthusiasm margins in states such as Georgia, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio to prevail. This seems to be working.
On Thursday, Hawkfish showed that Biden led Trump by 12 per cent in Florida in early and mail voting, however three days later, Republicans shrunk this gap significantly. This follows Trump's numerous rallies in the previous days in West Palm Beach, along the 'panhandle' in Pensacola, and The Villages (a community known for its elderly population – a group Trump is struggling to re-capture). Alongside Trump's modest gains with Hispanics in Florida and fractional improvement in African-American support, this could be enough to tip Florida's 29 electoral votes into Trump's column. To be clear, Florida voting for Joe Biden would be Trump's death knell. It is also highly likely we will know the result on Tuesday night as Florida's election law permits mail and early votes to be tabulated and counted before polls: All eyes will be on the Sunshine State, again.
Alongside Florida, Trump remains competitive in Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina. Biden is running under 1 per cent ahead of Trump in the two former states meaning the only thing preventing Trump prevailing is a small polling error. These states should not even be in play for Joe Biden given Trump's winning margins in 2016. Biden is being buoyed by high support for Democratic senate candidates Theresa Greenfield in Iowa, and Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in Georgia. This is good news for Biden: In 2016, senate candidates in states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina mirrored the performance of Trump and Clinton in the presidential race. Senate Republicans won every state Trump also won by identical margins. This is also good news for Trump. In North Carolina, Democratic senate candidate Cal Cunningham has recently become engulfed in an extramarital 'sexting' scandal evaporating what was a healthy polling lead against Republican Thom Tillis, to a statistical tie. Considering the 2016 senate-presidential comparisons, North Carolina's 15 electoral votes is within Trump's reach. If Trump wins all three races, he has clinched 247 electoral votes – only 23 away from the magic 270.
The question now is where Trump could make this final push. The likeliest path is Pennsylvania and Arizona. Despite Biden's healthy lead in Pennsylvania, Trump has plateaued at 45 per cent in polls, higher than any point in 2016. In addition, Biden's comments at the final presidential debate, that "I would transition from the oil industry" has thrown Trump a lifeline in a state where over 50,000 are employed in the oil industry – as we saw in 2016, 50,000 votes can tip the race. Similarly, in Arizona Trump has been gradually closing a gap with Biden. The gains amongst Hispanics (16 per cent of the state's population) could prove successful for Trump, alongside his deployment of Vice President Mike Pence to encourage some traditional conservatives to return home to the Republican Party. Like Florida, we are likely to know the winner of Arizona on election night. Winning both states would land Trump at 278 electoral votes, however neither are looking promising: Pennsylvania's supreme court upheld a law allowing an extended deadline for mail ballots to be received in a dramatic blow for Trump, whilst in Arizona, Democratic senate candidate Mark Kelly holds double digit leads over Republican Martha McSally, and suburbia has shifted firmly away from Trump.
Losing both would mean Trump having to cobble together a shaky coalition of states from Wisconsin (where Biden leads 51 per cent to Trump's 44 per cent), Michigan (51 per cent to 43 per cent), Minnesota (50 per cent to 43 per cent), to Nevada (50 per cent to 44 per cent). Trump is optimistic about the latter two, despite being heavily favoured to lose both.
Donald Trump could certainly win a second term. It hinges on how well he does with Hispanic and African-American voters, how the senate races play out, his base's enthusiasm, and the last week of the campaign allowing Joe Biden to make a gaffe. Democrats cannot dismiss Trump's chances, nor the potential 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon. As senator Jon Tester of Montana argues: Joe Biden and his party needs to "run through the f—ing tape".
