Will Partygate be the straw that broke the camel’s back?

No one can deny, even among his fiercest critics, that Boris Johnson's time as Prime Minister has been remarkable. We have not had an event as seismic as the pandemic in terms of impact on the UK since the Second World War, and the Prime Minister has had to make a number of hugely difficult decisions to steer the country through it.

However, no matter how difficult the circumstances, he must still be held to a certain standard expected of the office. The leaked email from his Principal Private Secretary, inviting Downing Street staff for drinks at a time when the rest of the country was confined to socialising with one person from outside of their household, is the latest in a number of controversies to hit the PM in recent weeks and months, and the public are growing not just angry, but tired.

Boris has always been a divisive figure, especially among his own party, but his ability to cut through the political noise and appeal to people on a personal level has allowed him to stand out. This personal appeal has also given him more leeway than any modern British leader. He often references Churchill and Churchillian rhetoric, yet his hero was ousted at the first possible opportunity after the Second World War, and his second period as leader from 1951 to 1955 saw the beginning of the period known as "thirteen wasted years".

Boris' personal appeal, along with his success in "getting Brexit done" has allowed him to swat away some controversies, such as the questions surrounding the renovation of his Downing Street flat, with relative ease. In an era when people ultimately care very little about politics because they feel it doesn't impact their lives, politicians complaining about decorating a flat doesn't resonate with people. Yes he might have made mistakes, but he's a nice guy and got Brexit done when others didn't.

The Owen Patterson scandal ramped the pressure on the Prime Minister up a notch. The image of Tory sleaze has always been a difficult one to shake, and with his initial defence of Patterson's conduct, followed by a swift change of direction, Johnson's appearance as a breath of fresh, jovial air, in comparison to Tories of old no longer fitted quite as well.

But ultimately, when the issues at hand strike a clear chord with the public, that's an entirely different story.

The pandemic has touched everyone's lives, for many in the most devastating way. Losing loved ones is bad enough, not being able to say goodbye to them because of having to stay at home is something none of us could have ever imagined dealing with. So the latest scandals, both relating to the breaking of pandemic restrictions, and both at the heart of the Prime Minister's office, are not ones where Boris' charisma alone can pull him back from the edge of the precipice.

On their own, the images of Allegra Stratton laughing during a practice press conference in December 2020 alone were bad enough. Days before, a Christmas party is alleged to have taken place at a time when regulations would not have permitted such a gathering. Denials such a party ever took place continued even after Stratton's resignation, but to many a business meeting with wine and cheese didn't cut it.

Add to this the latest Partygate at the height of the first lockdown when the public were being urged to be ultra-cautious, the NHS was being clapped and deaths were beginning to rise, and you wonder how much more damage the Prime Minister can take.

Over the years, Prime Ministers have met their downfall for a variety of reasons. For Anthony Eden, it was Suez and a failure of foreign policy. For Callaghan, it was industrial militancy from the unions. For Major, it was plain fatigue with a Conservative Party that had been in power for 18 years.

For Boris Johnson, it may be as simple as common sense. Logic tells you when mass gatherings aren't allowed, you don't have them; the reaction "is this for real?" from one of those invited to that gathering at the centre of Partygate, conveys the disbelief of many. One Johnson loyalist was quoted in The Telegraph earlier this week as saying that the "distance between Downing Street and the public right now… it's so damaging."

Whether the Johnson train does or does not reach the end of the line on the back of Partygate remains to be seen. The issue of who would take over as leader is not as clear as when Theresa May resigned (with Johnson having been the obvious heir-apparent for some time), and the current 80 seat majority in the Commons would not have been achieved without his leadership.

One thing, however, is abundantly clear: the pressure on the Prime Minister is the most he has faced in his entire period in office, and quite frankly, he has no one but himself to blame.