Why Britain needs a bold foreign policy in the Caucasus
On November 11, delegates descended on Azerbaijani capital, Baku, for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29). Officials from the host nation have suggested that the event is a chance for warring countries around the world to observe a temporary truce, and the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, is reportedly “working on the advancement of the peace agenda.” However, such claims stand at odds with Azerbaijan’s domestic behaviour in the weeks ahead of the summit, including its brutal crackdown on dissenters, and its recent belligerency in the Nagorno-Karabakh region with Armenia, where there is a real chance of fresh conflict. In a period during which the world is experiencing significant conflict, there is a refreshing opportunity here for the UK to facilitate improved relations.
Last September, in developments largely eclipsed by deepening conflict in Ukraine and Gaza, Azerbaijan launched a military assault on the ethnic Armenian-controlled region, killing dozens and displacing more than 100,000 residents. Though border clashes have not been reported since the spring, efforts towards a peace deal are faltering. This has been exacerbated by Aliyev’s demands for constitutional change, and his regime’s ominous labelling of parts of Armenia as ‘Western Azerbaijan’. Azerbaijan, which has been ramping up defence spending, has faced no repercussions for its ruthless conduct and seems undeterred from waging another offensive.
Previous efforts by the US, and the EU have failed to secure peace, while France’s financial support for Armenia - intended to level the playing field – is limited and has raised Azerbaijani suspicions. In contrast, the UK, which has developed a strong strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and has seen its bilateral trade increase by almost 9 percent in the past year, is well positioned to send a clear message that stability in the region is an important precondition for continued business investment and economic collaboration, especially in the energy sector.
This would be significant, especially in the case of BP, given its role as the largest foreign investor in Azerbaijan and its indirect funding of Baku’s war through its energy contracts. In Russia, BP had to abandon a stake of almost 20% in the Russian oil company Rosneft, following the launch of a so-called three-day “special operation” in Ukraine. This followed the UK Government’s expression of concerns over BP’s links to the company and its role in providing fuel to the Russian military.
BP has earned the Azerbaijani government more than four times its military spending since 2020, the year that war broke out in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. After banning Russian oil imports following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it would be a strategic error for the UK to now underwrite an authoritarian regime that is threatening to destabilise a strategic region.
It is also notable that, while others in this region are taking steps to delink themselves politically and militarily from Moscow, relations between Putin and Azerbaijan’s Aliyev have warmed.
The UK and its European allies should examine the extent to which Azerbaijan is helping Putin’s regime to dodge sanctions through backdoor means such as gas laundering. They should pay close attention to Azerbaijan’s aspirations to build rail and road links to its exclave in Nakhichevan, which will pass directly through Armenia. This initiative may provoke further conflict, ignite tensions with Iran, and draw in supervision from Russian security services.
There is also scope to deploy a variety of soft power methods to bolster Armenia’s resilience and encourage peace and prosperity in the region. Armenia is facing acute economic challenges following Azerbaijan’s assault, including the ongoing support for tens of thousands of displaced people from Nagorno-Karabakh. Further humanitarian aid will be required to address immediate needs from housing to mental health, particularly going into the winter. Support for Armenia’s efforts to diversify its economy is essential for the long term.
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has spoken positively about rebuilding Britain's global image as a defender of human rights and democracy. It can act on this by committing observers to the EU’s civilian monitoring mission to Armenia, as Canada has recently done, to build confidence and ensure stability in bordering areas between the two countries. In tandem, it should also expand its presence at its Yerevan embassy, boosting direct flights between London and the Armenian capital. It should expand market access for Armenian goods and issue more work and study visas.
The most urgent priority is to prevent war. The UK must show clear solidarity with Armenia and push Azerbaijan to de-escalate. In a region where Moscow is increasingly extending its influence, and undermining fledgling democracies, a strong rebuttal is required. Already, with Ukraine, we are seeing the destructive ambitions of the Kremlin. Recent elections in Moldova and Georgia revealed the extent of efforts by Russian agents and proxies to subvert democracy. Just two months ago, Armenian authorities intervened to stop a Russian-backed plot to overthrow the government.
By taking the lead in preventing the South Caucasus from sliding back into war and tyranny, the UK could reassert its role as a defender of democracy and secure a valuable foreign policy win. Deterring a looming conflict would be far less costly than responding to more spiralling violence on the borders of Europe.
Areg Kochinyan is the president of Research Center on Security policy an Armenian think tank concentrated on foreign affairs, security, resilience, regional and global politics.
