While losing in Ukraine, Putin is quietly winning in Georgia
Josep Borrell’s recent visit to Georgia was planned as something of a coming-out party by the locals. As Mr Borrell’s car wound its way through the streets of the capital Tbilisi, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs remarked that he had never seen more European Union flags on his travels.
The party didn’t last long, however, and Mr Borrell left his hosts under no illusion that a lack of political reforms meant Georgia’s EU candidacy would likely be rejected later in the year.
Mr Borell went home and the bunting came down. Then came the sensational claims that a coup was brewing. According to Georgia’s state security service, plot leaders were intending to capitalise on public anger at the ruling Georgian Dream party’s failure to build bridges with Brussels. They were said to be biding their time, waiting for a formal rejection notice before launching an attack.
More explosive still, it was alleged that Georgian-born members of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukrainian army were among the plot leaders. Military training was said to be taking place at an unspecified location on the Polish-Ukrainian border.
Breathtaking claims, but were any of them really true? As it turned out, the tale was as tenuous as it was murky, and it didn’t take long before it began to unravel.
Suspicions immediately grew that Georgian Dream was looking to create a pretext to start rounding-up political opponents ahead of next year’s elections.
Distrust of the party’s motives has been on the rise ever since it refused to sanction Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, and failure to secure EU candidacy could spell disaster at the polls.
Georgian Dream may well have calibrated that it was far better to nullify its critics now, rather than allowing them to make hay later.
Of course, political persecution is nothing new in Georgia. Mikheil Saakishvili, the former President, has languished in prison for almost two years on charges that many in the international community believe are an abuse of the judicial process.
And in March, police clashed with protesters over Russian-inspired draft laws which threaten to curb press freedoms.
EU leaders are justifiably worried that democracy in Georgia is under threat and that the Kremlin’s influence is growing.
There is a growing sense that the Georgian Dream party is playing a dangerous double game — ostensibly advocating for EU membership and touting rhetoric about its efforts while in reality doing little to meet Brussels’ demands for reforms.
Mr Borrell last week made a point of calling out the Georgian government on its recent decision to resume direct flights with Moscow, at a time when the rest of the western world is seeking to distance itself from Moscow.
You only need to look at the language of Georgia Dream to realise the country is quickly backsliding into the grip of the Kremlin.
The independent Open Caucasus Media analysed the rhetoric of party chair Irakli Kobakhidze over the first five months of Russia’s abhorrent invasion of Ukraine, and found he made 57 negative remarks about the west, 26 about Ukraine, and only nine comments critical of Russia.
Putin may be losing in Ukraine, but he is quietly winning in Georgia, and many in the international community fear that his tentacles are already firmly embedded in the apparatus of the state.
Against this backdrop, many will be taking claims of a Zelensky-linked coup plot with a bucket of salt, and wondering how long it will be before the Dream turns into a nightmare.
David Kezerashvili is Georgia’s former Minister of Defence.
