Trump's victory will harm the climate
Donald Trump’s re-election is a huge setback for everyone who believes in liberal democracy, the rule of law, or social justice. It is also a warning about what happens when the truth ceases to matter, when lies too often go un-challenged and when standards in public life slip and then collapse.
Those issues don’t only affect the US. They matter to all of us who believe in democratic values.
But a second Trump presidency creates another danger which will affect everyone around the world because if he follows through on what he has said during the campaign, US action on the climate emergency will go sharply into reverse.
Here’s a reminder of some of what he has said, both in rallies and interviews, over the last few months.
He’s called the Biden administration’s action on climate a “green new scam” and stated his intention to “frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill”. On the few occasions when he acknowledges that global warming is happening (he often claims the opposite), he says it is not a threat as it will just mean “the ocean’s going to rise one-eight of an inch over the 400 years and you’ll have more oceanfront property”. In fact, sea levels are rising one-eighth of an inch every year, not to mention deadly flooding in Spain and a catastrophic hurricane in North Carolina a few weeks ago.
When even the leader of an oil major urges Trump not to adopt a “wild west” approach to climate rules, it shows how dangerous for climate action another Trump administration might be.
We can expect one of his first actions to be withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate – repeating what he did in 2017. Only this time, he could go much further and withdraw from the United Nations convention which has overseen global action on climate for the past 30 years.
Let’s be clear: the Paris Agreement and UNFCCC are not panaceas for tackling climate breakdown. The world is clearly not on track to meet its ambition of limiting global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The annual UNFCCC summits are often exploited by fossil fuel companies for green-washing. It’s beyond a joke that for the second successive year, the UN climate summit is being hosted by a major oil and gas producer.
But the UNFCCC is the only international forum for tackling this emergency, which threatens every one of us, especially the poorer nations who contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions but are bearing the worst impacts.
If the US again withdraws from the treaty, it would destroy international cooperation on tackling climate change. As the world’s biggest contributor to climate breakdown, its actions matter. Even though like other rich countries the US is failing to meet its own climate targets, the Biden administration’s policies have made a difference to US emissions. As a wealthy nation, the US also contributes billions of dollars in climate finance to developing countries, as well as supporting banks that provide grants and loans for climate-related projects. That would all end.
Joe Biden was able to reverse Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement within days of being elected. But rejoining the UNFCCC would be much harder as it requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate to ratify a treaty and in the current polarised political climate, that would be almost impossible.
During his first administration, an astounding nine members of his top team rejected even basic climate science. This time, it’ll probably be all of them.
Influential voices around him are pushing for him to pull out of the UNFCCC and reject any global efforts to curb emissions – and they want to go further. Project 2025, a sinister plan for government drawn up mainly by people who worked for Trump in the White House, wants to do away with climate science altogether.
Those who end up working for Trump in the White House are being told that references to climate change should be “eradicated from absolutely everywhere”. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), one of the world’s most respected scientific authorities on climate breakdown, would be dismantled. Anything to do with climate would be “taboo” in a second Trump administration, even as the clear-up continues from Hurricane Helene, the deadliest hurricane for years and one that was super-charged by record warm ocean waters. It’s clear the intention is to gaslight the American public.
Trump’s MAGA movement isn’t the only far-right political party to have weaponised the climate issue to unsettle voters and sow doubt about the existential threat posed by climate breakdown. We’ve seen it in Europe too and, increasingly, in our own country.
It is of no comfort when we say we’re not the only ones deeply alarmed about the next four years. But we know the progressive movement in strong, both in the US and here. Those of us who believe in democratic values, in international cooperation and the rule of law must work together to overcome authoritarianism and the politics of hate.
This was co-written by Adrian Ramsay, MP for Waveney Valley and Carla Denyer, MP for Bristol Central, the Co-Leaders of the Green Party of England and Wales.
Adrian Ramsay is the MP for Waveney Valley and co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales.
