Syria: better the devil you know?
There is certainly no love lost following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. As Damascus fell and Assad fled to Russia, jubilation spread across the globe.
The Syrian diaspora has been seen celebrating in cities from Berlin to Sydney while thousands of the 6.2 million overseas refugees have been returning across the Lebanese and Turkish borders.
Western leaders have also joined in the exultation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the end of Assad’s “barbaric regime”, President Joe Biden called it a “fundamental act of justice”, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz described the fall of Assad as “good news.”
Yet, as Syria transitions from tyranny to turmoil, the question looms: what comes next, and at what cost? We cannot afford to be naïve to the cost of change.
Assad’s fall has been a long time coming. For almost 14 years Syrians have been subjected to instability and brutality. Responsible for over half a million deaths during the Syrian civil war, the use of chemical weapons against civilians, and the torture and execution of thousands in political prisons, it is no wonder there is widespread relief and excitement at the brutal tyrant’s fate.
Of course, Assad’s downfall comes with benefits. In addition to deposing a bloodthirsty autocrat, tens of thousands of prisoners, some of which include women, children, and others who have been incarcerated for decades, are now being released from political prisons. The infamous ‘human slaughterhouse’, notorious for extrajudicial killings, torture, and rampant disease, has been liberated.
Recent events have also dealt a significant blow to the influence of Iran and Russia. With Assad gone, the Islamic Republic of Iran no longer has its land routes for resupplying its Shiite proxy, Hezbollah, in Southern Lebanon. The implications of this must not be understated. This not only enhances Israeli security along their northern border but also presents Lebanon with a chance to break free from Hezbollah’s oppressive grip.
Nevertheless, despite this, celebrations seem to be premature.
A power vacuum seldom lends itself to stability. Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Afghanistan all descended into chaos following the collapse of government. While government forces have fallen, other factions will continue vying for power.
The most concerning development is the faction responsible for capturing Damascus. The media are complicit in whitewashing this group. These so-called rebels, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), are an Islamist militant group that emerged from al-Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra. HTS not only imposed Sharia law in Idlib province but ruled with the same brutal repression as the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Several media outlets appear to be giving Syria’s new de facto leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the benefit of the doubt. Sky News highlighted his pledge to protect minorities and willingness to engage with international norms, while the BBC described HTS’s message as one of “inclusiveness and a rejection of violence or revenge.”
Anyone placing hope in these promises is both credulous and gullible. Al-Jolani is a dangerous militant jihadi. Just as the Taliban, who vowed to respect women’s rights, have shown the folly of trusting terrorists, HTS will inevitably renege on their word. It will only be a matter of time before we witness the persecution of minorities like Christians and Kurds.
Al-Jolani's rebranding is a façade; his unwavering goal remains the liberation of al-Sham – a region encompassing Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. When he speaks of freedom and independence for al-Sham, he's targeting all of these nations.
Another overlooked threat is Turkey. While Israel’s actions in Syria dominated headlines, the mainstream media stayed silent on Erdoğan’s military offensives in the north. Qatar’s criticism of Israel’s airstrikes led BBC News coverage, yet it ignored a significant fact: the IDF’s airstrikes have neutralised Syria’s chemical weapons, missiles, aircraft, naval vessels, and anti-aircraft systems—preventing them from falling into terrorist hands.
Meanwhile, Erdoğan is advancing his geopolitical agenda. Turkey’s support was instrumental in bringing Islamic rebels to power, and now Erdoğan is exploiting the situation to target Kurdish separatists in Northeastern Syria. The West cannot afford to ignore Turkey—a NATO member—as a growing threat.
By no means do I wish for Assad to return – anyone downplaying his brutality is disingenuous. But will what follows truly be an improvement? One can hope, but I won’t hold my breath.
Power vacuums, al-Jolani’s jihadist past, and terrorists alike have taught us not to be optimistic in such circumstances. As the media whitewash the reality on the ground, we can only hope this isn’t the beginning of a darker chapter in Syria’s history.
Ellis Coughlan works in public affairs and communications, drawing on a background in Politics and International Relations from UCL.
