Starmer must appease Trump or face a popularity “drought”
Labour haven’t had the easiest ride in Government. From donation gaffes to economic backlash, Starmer has hit roadblock after roadblock in office, even suffering what was labelled a “historic” drop in approval ratings last October.
I won’t be overly unfair. There has been one standout moment from the Starmer era, and one that somewhat mended his weak ties with the UK public. What I’m talking about here is his initial meeting with ‘America First’ himself, President Donald Trump, in the White House.
We all know how it went. In that moment, “tough negotiator” Starmer schmoozed the unpredictable President, restating the UK’s historic alliance with the US and taking us – albeit briefly – out of his firing line. Royal dinner invitations were ceremoniously gifted, hands were shaken, and Starmer’s polls shot up. Kudos.
Now, however, that’s all for naught. Trump’s board of death decreed that the UK would have a 10% tariff imposed on all its US imports, dimming whatever hope we had of economic growth further. Even with his recent backdown, for now, at least, that tariff still stands.
If Starmer doesn’t repeat his acts of diplomatic mastery with Trump and nestle up to the US, I’m concerned that it could be goodnight for Labour. For me, the PM must appease the unpredictable President or risk facing a popularity drought. And to make matters worse, the clock is ticking.
Why? Well, because Labour is already facing extreme levels of public scrutiny.
Coming into office, the Government revealed a £22 billion “black hole” in public finances, claiming to have inherited what seemed like a poisoned chalice of a state. Ostensibly, this was to soften the blows of some of the fiscal changes they were to make in the Autumn Budget.
But it didn’t really work. Public perception of the party is shaky, to say the least, and to make matters worse, amid the Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded our growth forecast to 1%. Reeves and her merry band of economists haven’t been able to turn their growth promises into reality, and all stakeholders in our economy are growing disillusioned.
Some of our largest businesses have spoken out about the Government, warning of the expensive knock-on effects their policies could have on customers. And as of last month, the British public seems to also be dissatisfied, with 60% holding an unfavourable view of Starmer, according to YouGov.
I recognise that reasoning with Trump is like speaking to a brick wall. The new President has shown more knowledge of reality TV than macroeconomics, and if recent analysis holds true, he’ll soon be hurtling the US into a recession.
But Starmer has a lot to lose. He’s overpromised and under-delivered throughout his time in Number 10, turning what seemed like New Labour 2.0 into Blair-lite. If anything, despite the stock rhetoric, Labour look all too like the Tories before them. It’s no wonder someone unique, like Nigel Farage, is gaining traction.
Starmer and Labour have to win back public confidence. Opinion polls jumped to a six-month high after our PM’s meeting with President Trump, and if all else is lost, I can’t help but feel he has to repeat these acts if Labour have a chance of reclaiming their popularity.
Of course, it won’t be pretty. As a country, we might need to swallow our pride and accept a long-term trade deal on Trump’s terms. We might need to take whatever chlorinated chicken the US throws at us. We might even need to double the bottles of Moet at Trump’s state banquet.
The point is that Starmer can’t play hardball – he can’t batten down the hatches and assume he can negotiate solely with British interests at heart. Trump doesn’t work like that. He’s an egotist – a supposed master of the deal – and won’t back down, no matter how dire the domestic situation across the Pond gets.
Starmer’s popularity relies on him securing a long-term trade deal with the US when other countries do not. Trump’s pause from reciprocal tariffs has only shown how unpredictable and capricious he can be. One day tariffs will be gone, and the next they’ll be reintroduced, so I’d urge Starmer to open up discussions and put pen to paper with Trump ASAP. That is, no matter how ridiculous the terms.
True, maybe it’s risky to revert to the ways of Neville Chamberlain. But, in this case, it might just be sensible.
Isaac Goldring is a Client Manager at thought leadership PR agency Profile.
