Britain won’t Brexit in 2019

Peter Divey believes the Government's claim that the UK will have exited from the European Union by 30 March, 2019 is laughable. If you are following the rules and paying the subs in any club you are clearly still "in", he says.

The truth of the matter is slowly emerging. This was more of a confirmation than a revelation. Britain will remain subject to ECJ rule during any transition period. Worse, Britain may have to recognise and enact any new rulings or evolved laws that arise during transition, although the PM felt this was "unlikely". That is clearly poppycock. New or old, all law applies if you are subservient. Britain will still have to pay towards the new EU Defence Force and other expensive novelties that the EU will now rush through during "transit". There will be no cherry picking. The Government line still holds that the UK is "out" from 30 March, 2019. We have Brexited. This position is laughable.  If you are following the rules and paying the subs in any club you are clearly still "in". It doesn't matter if some bright spark decides to call it transition or even associated membership. It is an obvious mirage.

Terminology has changed. All the talk just a few months back was of implementation. This has morphed into transition. They are very different. There is no agreement so you could argue that there is nothing to implement. Britain cannot enter trade talks until we have formally left the EU and become a "third country", or something. I confess in my mind it is unclear as the definition and process pertaining to this particular quirk seems to be free-floating. Maybe transition is merely a device to enable "third-country" status. If that is so we need to be told. I expect implementation to follow transition. We will have gone over the "cliff edge". We will be falling. We will need to deploy the parachute. There will need to be a new term to explain and define implementation. I like "big bang", but numerous other catchy titles abound. Someone will come up with the perfect simile.

So, will we be "out" during implementation? Depends on who you believe. Brexit will limp on. Big Bang will be even more frightening than the cliff edge. This will be a busy time. The House may decide to vote on any final deal. A General Election will be close. Best of all, MEP's will veto any deal just because they can. They have little real power so how can they resist flexing rarely used muscles? Everything will then reset. I believe we can never leave unless we have the gumption to walk. This is the only leverage that we have which might genuinely bring the EU to the table. Perhaps that has at last sunk in. The EU have yet to face the reality of devising a new budget without Britain's cash. It will be challenging. Long grass. Tin can. It is something that the EU perpetually do. The clock is ticking for both sides. Probably nothing will be decided until the very last possible moment.

Theresa May has now tried to adopt the good cop, bad cop routine. The confirmation of ongoing ECJ overview offset by behind the scenes preparations for a no deal. Do the EU believe her now?  I remain doubtful so I am sure they do but at least there is a new dynamic. The EU constantly applies pressure. Corbyn is now a serious player so let's talk to him in case the PM falls. Unfortunately, the EU are correct about Corbyn. It is always sensible to have a back-up position. Domestically the Tory rebellion against May has fizzled out. Some are urging a reshuffle to reinforce her stature. I have given up on speculating now as it seems to me that time for changes are well overdue. I want more Leavers in Cabinet and would be pleased to see that anytime. A reshuffle might give me the opposite. Never forget that the PM is a Remainer. I groaned when I heard the PM talking about calm leadership recently, all I could think of was the suffocating strong and stable mantra. She is plodding on after cough saga. But it is hardly power to the (17.4 million) people.

I enjoy debating with Remainers. Some remain good friends. They are as passionate as me. They have bought in completely to Project Fear. It will be disaster. They are constantly noisy and agitating. Always hopeful that Brexit will just fade away. Juncker's State of the Union speech is a gift from God. The Guardian is the Bible of all things sensible and true. They are consistent on one point which worries me. If the Tories do not fall they want May to stay. It is not just that they think she's a liability. They sense something, chinks of light that give them hope. They do not want the buffoon Johnson to rise. Bad for Britain. But it is because he dampens the light and hope. He might bring it. Saint Jeremy is the answer. String it out. Time will save us. All Cable does is split the anti-Tory vote. No more centre ground, you can no longer afford to sit on the fence. Every vote counts. And so it does.