The Presidential Election is in exactly two weeks, and it is looking like Trump could be the first one term president since 1993. But if Biden is to succeed, he will need to win over the hearts of two key regions; the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt, writes Tom Bromwich.

There are 2 weeks left till the US presidential election and a President Biden has never looked more certain. What started out as a shaky front-runner candidacy in a pack of 30 Democrats has morphed into the most formidable challenge to a sitting president since the 1930s.

Joe Biden has metamorphosed from a sleepy and begrudging choice for president into the most popular presidential nominee since 2008, when a young Senator Obama held that title. Biden has swept under the radar to rout President Trump in almost every campaign aspect: Financially, Biden has surmounted Trump's heaving advantage to amass a war chest of over $1.5 billion since August, $758 million in September alone. Trump raised $623 million in the same time.

Politically, Biden has hemorrhaged Trump's advantage with key voting demographics including older voters, educated white voters, white women, and suburbia. These gains place Biden in a position which could see him win states Trump previously considered a done-deal: Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona. Trump has tacitly acknowledged his perilous monetary and political position by withdrawing advertisements from Ohio and Iowa in September, two states he won by the largest margin for any political candidate since 1988 and 1996, respectively.

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The Trump campaign has also significantly scaled back its presence in Michigan, which the President won by 0.3 per cent, and Minnesota, Trump's 2016 bête noire which has fueled a four-year long fixation with winning the state which hasn't voted Republican since 1972. Trump's political flat-lining is evidenced by simply having to hold rallies in Georgia and Ohio: A sign that his re-election prospects are in dire straits. Biden, meanwhile, has an abundance of resources, a ten per cent national polling lead, and a flurry of prominent Democratic, independent, and Republican endorsements, the latter of which include Republicans Against Trump, and the Lincoln Project, renowned for their scathing attacks on Trump. However, Obama has reportedly said that we must not "underestimate Joe's ability to f*ck things up", yet with 30 million people already having voted, is this premonition no longer valid?

Biden's win will need to come from two key regions: The Rust Belt and the Sun Belt. The Rust Belt is the reason Trump is President. By adopting an economically nostalgic message of 'bringing back jobs' and factories, and merging this with traditional socially conservative messages, Trump spoke to a combination of economically and culturally marginalised voters who had seen their employment and economic prospects diminish, and felt their country was slipping from them. Wisconsinites, Michiganders, Ohioans and Pennsylvanians saw Hillary Clinton as an elite responsible for their region's woes.

Joe Biden, however, built his reputation as 'son of Scranton', a Pennsylvania city known for its deep manufacturing, union identity, and thus is received more favourably in the Rust Belt. Intriguingly, Biden has adopted a 'Trumpian' economic rhetoric of 'Buy American, Hire American' which seeks to modernise free trade agreements, retain jobs in the USA, and use American taxes to spur Rust Belt investment. This places Biden in a far stronger position than Clinton and 2016 Democrats who saw the Rust Belt more as a troubled family member they had to meet once every four years. Biden has managed to bolster support among the region's key manufacturing demographic: White voters. Biden leads 51 per cent to Trump's 43 per cent in Wisconsin, tied at 45 per cent in Michigan, and reducing the 2016 deficit from 16 per cent to 3 per cent in Pennsylvania. Alongside this, Biden leads on average 56 per cent to Trump's 36 per cent among white, degree-level educated voters. Clinton had 44 per cent regional support among this group to Trump's 50 per cent.

Biden's advantage is similar in the Sun Belt states of Arizona and Texas. However, these states' suburban populations are where Biden is winning. Whilst Trump has marginally improved his Latino outreach, Biden's newly found coalition of suburban, white and Latino, educated voters is giving him an edge in two states no Democrat has won since Bill Clinton in 1996, and Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrats have high hopes flipping Arizona, citing 2018 victories among these demographics, and polling for the senate election show Democrats sustaining healthy leads for the seat Republicans John McCain and Barry Goldwater both held. The Biden campaign has therefore invested unprecedented resources in securing the state's 11 electoral votes, these measures are paying off. Biden, however, is not the favourite to win Texas, lagging by roughly two per cent. Yet simply by putting this state into play is indicative of Biden's wider Sun Belt success. Losing Texas would be Trump's ultimate gut punch.

Biden's fate will be decided in the Rust Belt and Arizona specifically. Whilst North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, and Florida remain critical for Trump, Biden can afford to lose all four and still win the electoral college. This prospect seems shaky given Biden is being buoyed by unprecedented support in these states by white women and black voters. This demonstrates the parlous situation Trump is in, and highlights Biden's monumental inroads into traditional Republican constituencies of white, educated, suburban male and female voters. It is unlikely we will know these states' results on election night, however early results could signal that 'Sleepy Joe' has instilled enough complacency in Trump to make him the first one term president since 1993. Trump's self-satisfaction is allowing his 2016 yesterday of success to lull him into 2020's complacency, setting in motion his campaign's great foundation of failure.

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