December 19, 2016

Peter B’s political predictions for 2017

Peter B’s political predictions for 2017

Peter Bingle sets out his political predictions for 2017…

After a year like 2016 in which, with very few exceptions (me!), every political commentator and polling company made fools of themselves it is perhaps slightly brave to forecast what is going to happen in 2017 but as my old mentor Doris Stokes used to say …

Let’s start first with Theresa May and the Tory Party. Despite very healthy personal ratings and strong opinion poll ratings, the PM and her closest aides know that Tory MPs are in a fractious mood. She has a tiny overall majority and there is a small but obdurate group of Remainers who are determined to make her life as difficult as possible.

‘Trousergate’ had nothing to do with the PM’s rather fetching if expensive leather trousers. It was merely an indication of the Tory turbulence which is bubbling away underneath the surface at Westminster. Expect more turbulence.

The PM knows that there is not a majority in the current House of Commons let alone the House of Peers to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. It follows that she is unlikely to secure a safe passage of the Great Repeal Bill. This, combined with increasing trade union militancy and terrible Labour Party polling, is the perfect political storm and will allow the PM to argue that there is a constitutional crisis which can only be resolved by an early general election. The Labour Party will agree to a request from the Tories to find a way of neutering the Fixed Term Parliament Act. They can hardly oppose an early election can they?

The PM will win a majority of over a hundred at the general election and will then create a government in her own likeness. It will herald a new Tory hegemony in which we are governed by grammar school boys and girls! Etonians will retreat to their country estates and weep. The staff are running the country!

2017 will be another terrible year for the Labour Party. Whatever the outcome of the general election (and even if there isn’t one) Jeremy Corbyn will have retired to the obscurity of North Islington before the year is up.

Corbyn clearly doesn’t enjoy being in the spotlight. His long held political views put him at odds with his own MPs let alone mainstream public opinion and there are ongoing and increasingly strong whispers at Westminster that his heart isn’t in it. Did he really try to resign during the mass resignations earlier in the year?

An early election thwarts (at least in the short term) the political ambitions of Sadiq Khan who is already showing signs of boredom at City Hall. This leaves space for three potential pretenders to the Labour Crown – Clive Lewis, Lady Nugee (Emily Thornberry) and Sir Keir Starmer. Westminster watchers will be analysing their every move from 1st January. Ironic isn’t it that as the grammar school old boys and girls take over the Tory Party, Lady Nugee and Sir Keir are best placed to take over the Labour Party?

After a crushing defeat at the general election, the Labour Party will implode and then enter its darkest ever days. The odds must be evens at best that the party will have split by Christmas. There might even be a few defections …

Under the leadership of Paul Nuttall, who gives a very plausible impression of being a Scouse bouncer, UKIP will give up the pretence of being a national party and focus instead (rather like the Northern League in Italy) on becoming the major challenger to the Labour Party in the North of England. The greater the exposure the more plausible and popular Paul Nuttall will become. If there are by-elections during the year in the North-East then UKIP is very well placed to win them.

The Lib Dems will continue to try and become the political repository of Remain voters who aren’t prepared to accept the referendum result. They might do well at the local council level but one thing won’t change in 2017 – Tim Farron will continue to be a figure of fun.

The SNP will continue to annoy and aggravate everybody who isn’t Scottish. Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems will grow even less relevant and the kick boxing Tory Ruth Davidson will become even more popular. 2017 will confirm the Tory renaissance North of the Border.

2017 will see the political rebirth of one of the smartest operators in modern politics : The Rt Hon George Osborne MP. We are going to see a softer, kinder, tieless and much more self effacing George as he seeks to rebrand himself as a political nice guy. The strategy might work. George is actually great fun and best company. He is also a Wagnerian! George simply needs to let the public see the real him. 2017 will be a critical year. If the strategy works George may still one day become Tory PM.

Conversely, the much heralded attempt by Tony Blair to return to British politics will fail and come to nothing. Some brands are so damaged they cannot be repaired.

So another great year awaits us. Hang on to your seats!

Happy Christmas.

5.00 avg. rating (98% score) - 10 votes
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Peter Bingle
Peter is the Founder of Terrapin Communications. With a career in politics and communications that has spanned almost four decades, he is one of the country's leading public affairs practitioners. His career has seen him advise many top companies, including McDonald’s, HSBC, L’Oreal, Permira, Motorola, Camelot, Rolls Royce & Kellogg's.
  • Shadow Warrior

    Hammond is continuity Brown. He is a hand-wringing lefty looking for clever wheezes to raise more tax in ways that people don’t immediately notice.

  • captainslugwash

    I predict the Budget will attempt to show the Left how caring the Tories are, and it will be funded by screwing over the working man.
    If Corp Tax comes down, I bet Divi tax will be going up.
    I would love to be wrong.

  • skynine

    We really need to look at tax credits, in particular in work tax credits that encourage people to work part time to preserve the benefits. 45% of women work part time and I would hazard a guess that tax credits are the main cause. This leads to low pay, low skill work in supermarkets and the retail sector including coffee shops. The government needs to get back to the employer paying people to do a job for economic reasons rather than to get onto the tax credit ladder. Like all government benefits it distorts the market and diverts government expenditure into non productive areas.
    The refrain that the government has cut expenditure is not true, it increases every year as more and more goes into welfare.

  • MrVeryAngry

    fat chance

  • MrSauce

    So, when wouldn’t we want a ‘budget for growth’?

  • Rob

    I note that the UK Government has just slapped on a 25% tax charge for anyone moving abroad and wishing to move out their private pension from the UK.

  • SonofBoudica

    The Remoaners will do their utmost to sabotage the Government’s negotiating position. They do not want a successful outcome; they want a failure. They want to be able to scream “Told you so!” from the rooftops.

  • EnglandLaments

    Thank goodness for Andrew Neil, the one media hack who scares the pants off the established politicians. He was spot on with Heidi Allen!

  • joshuafalken

    I had a very long, hard, studied and considered look at the hope, care and aspirations of all Europeans, before I voted to get the UK out of the toxic grasp of Brussels.

    The European Union and it’s charge of “ever closer union” has borrowed and spent its way to oblivion, whilst enslaving the working and middle classes in debt.

    The central control mantra of the unaccountable Brussels ruling elite, delivered through a mixture of socialism, globalism and corporatism is entirely responsible for the populist revolt by the millions of “Just About Managings” across Europe.

    We must remember the ultimate goal of socialists, globalists and corporatists is control, not prosperity. see https://mises.org/blog/goal-socialists-socialism-—-not-prosperity.

    Social equality and economic growth always fail under central control and fighting against the Brussels doctrine on behalf of all Europeans is why I voted for Brexit.

    Britain has a long history of helping Europeans depose tyrants and Brussels is just the latest incarnation.

    Britain is the most racially advanced and accepting society on the planet. We welcome those in need and those that can help us with open arms and a smile; that will not change.

    We are also one of the most innovative, talented and open societies in the world, which why everyone wants to live here. However, we cannot fit everyone in, so we have to have clear, balanced and fair immigration policy which is where the arguments start between the monetarists and humanists will never be reconciled.

    I thought long and hard before coming to the conclusion that leaving the EU was in the best interest of all Europeans, as Brussels is toxic and cannot be reformed from within.

    Also, I find it insulting that people who voted Remain have insufficient faith in British ingenuity, compassion and skill to get a good deal for us and see the Europe that we love get a better deal from Brussels and the reform that European people deserve. https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/29/bad-brexit-deal-better-than-no-deal-mathematical-idiocy-odds-of-no-deal/ and https://www.worldheadlines.info/2017/03/after-brexit-9-reasons-to-be-bullish-on-great-britain/

    The politics of left verses right are dead because neither have delivered the promised economic growth and social mobility for anyone, but themselves. The populists are not selfish per-se, they just want to take back control of their own destiny that left/right politicians have freely given away and/or exploited for their own ends. In my constituency, the local residents group are taking over the councils as politicians ignore voters, so Westminster should beware of the well-organised, local resident independents at the next election. This is a peoples revolution which should be shouted from the rooftops, but liberals remained deafened by the socialist, globalist and corporatist “vested interests” that have spectacularly failed us and are obediently crying foul and fake.

    There will be an initial unpalatable inflationary cost to fighting globalism and rolling back central control that few appear to have factored in, but dismantling failed left/right vested interests should eventually free libertarian socially-conservative capitalism from the shackles of TBTF corporatism to feed economic growth and social mobility.

  • agdpa

    The EU usually makes the wrong decision – on immigration, on freedom of movement, on the euro, on the Ukraine, etc. etc. Little hope it will get Brexit right.

  • brownowl

    Eh? Reference please!

  • Neil2

    Sod caring. Screw the spongers and breeders. Kill HS2. Stop all “green” subsidies. Slash “foreign aid” and walk away from the EUSSR with immediate effect.

  • Rob
  • John C

    What a confused article. It conflates surveillance by the security services with poor defences against fraud.

  • John C

    Err, it’s the UK that’s leaving the EU, not vice versa.

  • John C

    Me, now. ‘Growth’ is a manic obsession.

  • La Face Nord

    Mr Redwood – are you aware of the Biased BBC website? It’s been exposing their agenda for a long time, but I imagine you’ve been well aware of the BBC’s agenda for quite some time…

  • Contact Rvtech

    The post is great

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