No deal? No chance.


No deal? No chance.

We need to wake up to reality. We’re not going to be leaving the EU without a deal. We’ll have to take a deal, any deal, good or bad. What’s more, every penny of the billions we’ve pledged are as good as in the EU’s pocket, says Peter Divey.   

The EU’s message is clear. They will not be rushed. A trade deal by the end of the transition period is nothing but a UK pipe-dream. The defeat last December of the May Government’s noble plan to legislate for a guaranteed Brexit was scuppered by a Labour/SNP alliance supported by Remainer Tory MP’s; and in doing so has wrecked any notion of a No-Deal being preferable to a Bad-Deal and the EU knows it. Those promised multi-billions are now almost unconditionally safe.

Slow is good. Every moment of delay costs the UK millions and confirms the near impossibility of the task.  Why would the EU hurry? The next General Election is increasingly likely to be a more nuanced examination of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Soft is the new Hard and the only offer will be a variation upon the intensity of convergence. Those potential advantages of a clean Brexit are already lost. That Cliff Edge was just too scary.

A formal amendment to enshrine a Brexit leaving date in law may be the next sacrifice to this has been dashed. The EU continue to believe that Brexit can be reversed and ripples from the UK Parliament only serve to sustain hope. It is not too late to turn is the cry. The first revolt likely begets another and more pressure will be consistently applied to PM May from home as well as abroad.

The idea of a newly independent Scotland then rejoining the Federalist EU was rightly mocked, and the same needs to be said about the Tory Remainer rebels who used Parliamentary sovereignty as cloud cover for their revolt. The real motive is obvious. Weaken May, weaken Brexit and bolster the EU. Keep chipping away and the Brexit facade could yet crumble, and indeed there are now cracks in the mortar.

The End Game is not yet in sight but the framework is appearing from the fog. A No-Deal has been finessed off the table. The Commons will support any deal that best mimics EU membership and the Lords will only hammer further upon that nail. The EU may be worried about their unity but, in the meantime, will continue to exploit Tory divisions as well as a useful British ambivalence towards project Brexit. The EU intend to slow-walk the UK into a cul-de-sac and the vast majority of MP’s do not seem to mind because then there is only one option left. You must turn around. And go back from where you came.

2.50 avg. rating (51% score) - 24 votes
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  • Peter Divey
    Peter Divey
    Peter Divey's dormant interest in British and American politics has been reawakened by last year's Brexit referendum result and Trump's ascendency to the White House. In his spare time he enjoys playing chess and has a growing collection of vintage wrist watches.
    • Little Black Censored

      Mr Divey should spend more time with his collection of vintage watches.

    • This site needs to figure out its priorities- does it want to engage readers? Then make the page readable. It’s difficult scrolling around just to be able to get to the actual article, because an stock image of a deck of cards seems to be of more importance.
      Note to administrator- this is why I ad-block.

    • Felt

      For anybody with an ounce of business sense the only deal is to LEAVE, no payments and go to WTO.

      If we have to pay for a deal for Europe to sell to us its goods, but the EU refuses to allow our financial institutions a similar passport, then we are being led by fools and traitors of the highest order. LEAVE without a deal. Sit back and wait for the German, French, Italian and all the other industrialists beat a path to our door, to sell into their biggest export market.

      We are led by donkeys. Once the betrayal of the electorate is fully understood, the Tory Party will be finished, and deservedly so.

    • Malcolm Marchesi

      Many years ago when I was very young ( I’m 76 now ) I was told not to believe everything I read in the newspapers or heard on the wireless
      ( yes , the wireless ). All the main media outlets have their own agenda and consequently cannot be relied upon for all the facts . So much of what is going on is carried out under the radar and it’s the end result that counts . We leave the EU at the end of March 2019 , whether or not there is a “good” deal or no deal will make no difference , we’ll be out . If only our dim-witted remainer fanatics could grasp that , it would improve dramatically the prospects for a good deal . My own view is that as long as we are out , it will eventually be a better deal than we have now . Roll on 2019 .

    • ajibee

      Why do authors who don’t proof-read their articles, even cursorily, expect to be taken seriously?

      e.g. “may be the next sacrifice to this has been dashed”

    • ScaryBiscuits

      I love these people who think that our side are all idiots and our opponents geniuses. If the EU Commission was half as clever as Divey seems thinks, it would have given David Cameron the deal he was asking for. It’s possible they have learnt their lesson and won’t overplay their hand this time but, judging by the cocky arrogance quasi-religious fervour of much of the Euro-elite, they’re at least as likely to misjudge the British again.

      • Lamia

        You make good points about the EU. Unfortunately most of the UK Parliament and establishment are on the side of the EU, not of Britain.

    • Captain Cutlass

      I think a central point is being overlooked here. Britain is leaving the EU. We will not be bound by trading standards, legal or convergence criteria and the rest of their red tape which militates against independence. The EU cannot cope with this. We can. It is politically impossible for May or anyone else to deliver anything other than real independence. Most people I talk to – in the rural west country – think a real Conservative government is needed and May ‘s apologetic excuse for an administration needs to be scuppered quickly and surely.

    • The Banana

      This is nonsense. If a soft Brexit, perhaps as a transitional arrangement, is required, then there is EFTA. Norway has made approving noises, though with a certain amount of reserve. It’s not up to the EU.

      Anything the EU has to be better than EFTA or the bare WTO, depending on which option we’re talking about. As EFTA allows trade deals with third parties, as a transitional arrangement it seems to make a lot of sense.

    • iamatimesreader

      I’m not at all sure what the author’s argument is but the cards are not all with the EU by any means. If the EU goes slow, it runs the risk of no deal, which harms its businesses as well, and no cash.

    • Leo Savantt

      Any deal with the EU will be a bad deal; not because there is no such thing as a good deal, but because making a good deal is neither in the EU’s interest nor part of their narrative. The EU is led by the European Commission who dominate the negotiating process, they care not for the member states but only for themselves and their vision of “ever closer union”. Allowing a good deal for both the EU and the UK challenges the assumption that EU good, not EU bad. The prospect of a thriving UK outside the EU challenges the EU’s belief in itself as well as not providing a deterrent to the more recalcitrant member states, especially in the East.

      The European Parliament, whilst having no role in the negotiations, do have the power of veto. If the Commission are ideologically driven then the EP is fanatically so. A bad deal, for both the UK and therefore in actuality for member states is all that is on offer. European institutions are diametrically opposed to anything that smacks of a good beneficial or positive post Brexit relationship. The only question is how bad will the final proposal be. The answer is likely to be very bad indeed. However, a silver lining exists, whatever the outcome of the negotiations the UK will always be better of Out than In, even if that turns out to be only half out.

    • McRobbie

      The eumoaners do keep trying hard to make leaving seem hard. No deal is a great deal and the sooner the better … why ? We pay over 18 billion a year to trade 220 billion in exports to the eu … we would only pay half that or less under WTO tariffs… and the eu would pay us more. And the world already trades with the eu on competitive and profitable terms without being officially “in” the so called awesome single market. No deal is a great deal.

      • SonofBoudica

        Don’t forget the annual trade deficit with the rest of the EU which is currently at a level around £100 billion. We have to pay a membership fee in order to give Germany and France a massive trade advantage (because there is a single market in goods at which they excel but no single market in services at which the UK excels, even though it was due to be implemented in the 1990s).

    • fourmyle of ceres

      your stockholmed m8

      1950 EU 33% of world trade
      2015 EU 18%

      and now with 10 million muzzie leeches

      good luck

      and dont let your daughters out on their own at night

    • fred finger

      Unless some backbone is shown soon, then the good ship ‘Brexit’ will just drift until it goes aground. The EU are NOT our friends, why do they keep pretending that we will have friendly trade, we might as well stir the pot, we have nothing to lose. However, spineless May is NOT the PM to have a go at the EU.

      • The Banana

        Quite. We need a government that recognises the truth; that the EU is no more our friends than we were the friends of colonial India. Disinterested managers is about as positive as they could be.

    • Mojo

      I think this is a little pessimistic. I have also been increasingly concerned at how easily Mrs May is capitulating and also how so many so called Brexiteers in government are continually rallying behind her sell out. But then, of course the true Brexiteers were never in Government were they. Whatever the Tory eurosceptic say, they didn’t back Andrea Leadsom, a true maverick and the opportunity to take a risk!!! They backed someone they actively disliked but were too afraid of the establishment backlash. The country realised at that point how very weak the Brexit Government was and indeed how they completely misunderstood the Leave vote.

      However, all is not lost. There are gatherings of frustration around the country. If the likes of Kate Hoey, Jacob Rees Mogg and Gisela Stuart (the only people in my opinion who truly understand Brexit) become disillusioned, we might find a movement within Westminster that pulls the country behind them. Ignites a flame and creates a co ordinated push to change government. They will have the problems growing in Europe to help them and they will know that many EU countries are actually supporting the verve and tenacity of the UK.

    • here’s looking at you kid

      If there’s a bad deal and heaps of fudge the electorate will be furious.
      They will sit on their hands come the GE in 2022 and the Tories will be catapulted into oblivion never to return in anything like it’s current form.
      17.4 million voters will not be ignored, democracy must prevail.

      • Helen Smith

        Yes, they will be furious, but they should and will blame Labour for it.

        • Lamia

          I don’t think so, Helen. Labour and the Lib Dems and others will have their turn, but the first victims of a fudge will be the Tories themselves. They are the government and they could have driven a proper Brexit if they had wanted to. They will be wiped out for good, and deservedly so. Then the guns will turn to the others.

        • McRobbie

          I’m convinced it wont pan out the way of set out.. we’ll thrive in the real world.

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