November 8, 2017

Labour set for EU re-entry

Labour set for EU re-entry

With Labour rejecting its existing electoral base, pursing instead the once apathetic youth vote, the party will be forced to advance on a vehemently pro-European footing, and in doing so lay the foundations for Britain’s re-entry into the European Union, says Peter Divey.

The Labour Party have made the decision to turn away from their voter base. The working-class communities that have been the backbone of their support for generations. Their heads have been turned by the newly energised younger voter who turned out in the general election regretful of their apathy over the Brexit referendum. In the short-term they are going to exploit the cult of Corbyn. They are promising these voters everything they could wish for even when they know it is impractical or unaffordable. If they achieve power they will backtrack furiously, just as we have already seen over the now ‘aspirational’ student debt debacle. They do not want the collapse in the Pound to be too grievous. The magical money tree is fast transforming into an even more fanciful illusion. Perhaps a magical money forest?

The traditional Labour voter has issues. Brexit. A difficult topic for Labour who seem to be steering back towards a steadfast Remain situation at full speed. Labour are doing a remarkably good job of not illuminating a firm Brexit position and tend to avoid the topic beyond criticising the Government. They assume die hard supporters will follow them no matter what if it removes the Tories. Sensible for now, opportunistic and cynical, like every political party. But eventually they will have to present an official Brexit strategy and that will be as divisive as it has always been. Relying on the whims of younger voters may turn out to be a foundation built from sand. Giving the impression of being anti-Brexit is useful for now. David Miliband is bemoaning the “humiliation” of Brexit, but then he is a charity case.

The Liberals under Cable are a mess. A single issue Party. Everything is pro-Europe and anti-Brexit. They are literally the polar opposite of UKIP despite vehement denials of such. If you wish to sabotage Brexit Cable is not the one to show the way, you will be wasting your vote. For now, this is the Labour offer who are readily hoovering up anti-Brexit centrists. Clegg may no longer be a parliamentarian but he continues to pull very hard on that single Liberal lever. Cable wishes to wait for older voters to die which will not produce rapid results, never mind that it is offensive and self-defeating. If you are over 50 please go elsewhere, your lack of education and nostalgic cravings mean that your vote is ill judged. The Common Market morphing into a full-blown federalist project is irrelevant. It is better for you don’t you know?

In Scotland, the SNP continue to put the issue of governing into the back seat, while their lust for a second referendum remains in the driving seat. Perhaps this is one of the virtues of devolution: it provides the electorate with an amuse-bouche of independence realities. But, still, at least they don’t pretend to be other than they are. Just do not expect competence. so bad has been the performance that even the Tory corpse has shown signs of life. Ruth Davidson is ambiguous on Brexit, her position is unclear to me, softest of soft perhaps. But she is hard in Scotland’s parliament and enjoys calling out Sturgeon on her myopic vision. Not sure what running through a wheat field to mock the Prime Minister signifies other than to say I am a very different type of option. A big chunk of the Scottish Tory vote was built upon Brexit supporting coastal fishing communities lest she forget. Wales voted for Brexit, again you must blame the rural uneducated. If everybody went to university sufficient brainwashing could have been achieved, learning is secondary. The DUP have done brilliantly well garnering lots of lolly from a weakened May. In the truest sense, they are the only real Conservatives left standing. They were the only politicians who felt able to withstand Cameron’s politically correct gay marriage push. They recognised and then acknowledged their electorate’s wishes. How unusual these days. Northern Irish power sharing is difficult because in Ulster both sides do not so easily sell their voters out. If only Cameron could have brought such energy to other political causes. Virtue signalling made him feel virtuous, negotiating with the EU clearly did not. His heart wasn’t in it, why bother, the referendum result was nailed on, he had the IMF and Obama to wheel out. Easy.

Is it surprising that the Tories are not exploiting this cauldron? Perhaps like the DUP they might choose to enact the Brexit vote of 17.4 million Leave voters. Do not pay a Brexit bill, do not cower to EU extortion, do not choose an indefinite and expensive transition. Brexit will always be divisive even if you water it down, so don’t. Just do what it says on the tin. Stand up to Carney, Hammond and Project Fear. Eventually they must be right, just as a broken clock is twice a day, doesn’t make them fearsome or prescient. A massive Brexit bill will probably be paid and that money will have been wasted, no more use than cavity wall insulation because within ten years or so we will be back in the EU, when Labour get in. They will make certain of it, that will be the defining manifesto war cry. As good a reason as any not to hand over that £53 billion. We will go back in on worse terms than even now and won’t see that money ever again. May needs to be “bloody difficult”. A free Britain would be a profound legacy. Juncker has laid out the vision for the EU going forward. Much more Europe, a United States of Europe. What has 40 years of EU membership meant to Britain economically? By their own measure the EU has said that at best it has increased UK GDP by one per cent. Project fear won’t tell you that. No need to pay a bribe or offer gifts because EU membership has barely had any effect economically. Then, now or ever.

4.73 avg. rating (94% score) - 15 votes
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Peter Divey

Peter Divey’s dormant interest in British and American politics has been reawakened by last year’s Brexit referendum result and Trump’s ascendency to the White House. In his spare time he enjoys playing chess and has a growing collection of vintage wrist watches.

  • DAWWolds

    Perhaps it should simply be: if you love The EU at 20 you are immature. If you still do so at 40 you need to grow up. It could, of course, be slightly stronger than that but this is a public forum!

  • Peter Divey

    With their heart and soul they really believe it. Quite sad. Outside of the EU’s protective embrace we are doomed! It is not Project fear to them, just a statement of the inevitable…

  • Andrew Mitchell

    It always used to bug me when the remain side called leavers “little Englander’s” to me the remainers were like those walking around a few hundred years ago who would stand on the end of a dock shouting at the boats “don’t go over there, don’t you know you’ll fall off the world? All that ” we can’t possibly trade around the world without the EU” gobshites all of them!

  • Peter Divey

    Yep, that seems about right. They would wriggle off the hook if they thought they could get away with it. Enthusiasm, not!

  • Nockian

    They are executing it with no passion for doing so, but that kind of gritted teeth determination that people have when told to do things they would much prefer not to do.

  • Helen Smith

    The EU would exact a very high price from us to rejoin in order to deter others. And Labour would not win a GE if rejoining the EU was its absolute policy. UKIP would take too many votes from them as it did in 2015.

  • Peter Divey

    Well, it must be the very opposite of the current attempted narrative(that Leave voters are thick)…Brexit voters are actually the brainy ones!

  • DAWWolds

    Perhaps we to paraphrase the old adage that goes something like this: “If you are not a socialist at 20 you have no heart. If you are still a socialist at 40 you have no brains.” Anyone any ideas of expressing that in terms of Brexit?

  • DAWWolds

    Agreed!

  • Peter Divey

    Rush to leave? Must have missed that. The party “most likely to leave” says it all…none of them really want Brexit.

  • Peter Divey

    I have written extensively on this very matter. Shows the EU in its true light.

  • Bosanova

    Greece is the story that makes my blood positively boil. An entire nation held in indentured bondage, for the sole purpose of keeping the EU dream alive. Because nobody actually thinks their debt will ever be paid down, and at current levels they’re prevented from every recovering. Yes, they had a hand in their own misfortume, but for the EU to ignore its own culpability and persist with their ever revolving “bailout” is immoral.

  • Peter Divey

    A human ponzi scheme…i like that, very apt. The entire EU project is akin to some weird political ponzi con.

  • Peter Divey

    Just so.

  • fred finger

    Having lost all our opt outs and rebates, that will go down like a plate of cold sick.

  • Peter Divey

    Your analysis is all too frighteningly real. Migrants are expected to vote Labour, the main reason for opening the flood gates.

  • Tony in Southwark

    Labour has been fanatically pro-EU since Delors visited in 1990 and promised it and the Unions that so called Social and Employment Policies would be pushed into UK irrespective of any UK Government’s wishes (ie a Conservative government elected with large working class support). What in fact we got was Freedom Of Movement of the Unemployed of the South and East. This led to the fundamental distortion of the labour market and depression of wage levels among the No-Skill and Lo-Skill working classes here. The In-Work Benefits system also means that these people are not Net Contributors to our Social, Welfare, Pensions or Education Systems and we have a ridiculously subsidised business model of Zero-Hours, Fake Self Employment in the ‘personal services/ leisure-retail sector. I became deeply ashamed of the transformation of London society being dominated by Coolly Labour. So that was OK for Blair – Brown and the New Labour Careerists, with their Slavic Nannies and Maids and OK for the Red Fascist Fanatics of Corbyn because of the the influx of State Dependent illiterates with large families who will vote Labour, but sod the indigenous Tax Paying Working Classes.

    So who cares that Labour will become Pro EU ? This was the reason I decided to stop supporting the Labour Party after a life time of doing so – they betrayed the working classes, whether Centrists, Rigth Wing or Lefoids.

  • Peter Divey

    Corbyn is not in charge. Momentum will decide. I think come 2019 we may only be out “on paper”, running a paralleling, shadow membership, all the easier to go back in.

  • fred finger

    Corbyn is a changed man, he is ban the bomb, but will not insist on disarmament. The Labour party is pro EU, regardless of what they say, he likes the limelight he will compromise his so called principles.

  • AdamS

    Peter we will be officially out at the end of March 2019 with the implementation period to follow. The deal we get may be good bad or indifferent but we will be out and once out the barriers to re-entry will be very high. Corbyn is a lifelong eurosceptic – he voted leave in 75 and campaigned against Maastricht and Lisbon- so it is unlikely he will want to lead the U.K. back in if he becomes PM.

  • Nockian

    I’m not sure that’s exactly right. A good interview with Hitchens might well have the best analysis. The Tories are a party which prefers to remain in the EU, but, as it often happens amongst those who engage in reluctant actions, they are falling over themselves to prove to be the party most likely to leave. The rush to exit is now becoming an obstacle to a negotiated settlement within the party, HoC and the EU.

  • fred finger

    A stat that the remoaners don’t like was first proffered by a Lords report on the EU. That is GDP/head. If you do GDP by itself, it looks like we are improving at a great rate. However, if you divide it by the increasing population, then it has barely changed. The report does not take into effect of the increased population on our infrastructure, meaning mass migration both EU and non EU has been a disaster. It does also not take into consideration the bad effects of population explosion that it is claimed we need for our long term care ( a human ponzi scheme in reality). The UK has a 20% efficiency deficiet compared to the EU. With hourly pay increasing, then employers will have to spend instead of cheap labour. That in crude terms could mean a 6M extra unemplyment, something we could not afford. The down side of EU membership will hit us in years to come, it will not be pretty.

  • Nockian

    A man with his eye on power. His tenure with the LibDems is finished; he doesn’t fit Labour, nor the Tories. He is very much a Blairite politician that finds Blairism out of fashion in the UK. Where can one go, where Blairites are still welcome-the EU. He will work for a position in the EU in the hope of saving his moribund career.

  • Peter Divey

    Incredible that someone in that position would even say that. Just shows what they really want.

  • Peter Divey

    I agree with you…but it seems this Govt. does not. I fear they have already caved!

  • Peter Divey

    Lots of articles about…this is the latest(did EU membership accelerate UK economic growth?…on Social Europe). It is well known that EU membership has been of minimal benefit to the UK economy but it is not flagged up much…wonder why?

  • fred finger

    If, the tories, ended up with that outcome, then DD must know that it really means political sui cide for a generation. I have reluctantly come to the conclusion, that an early showdown with the EU over the terms of a trading agreement or we walk with a ‘no deal’ , is the only option. You cannot negotiate with the EU as there CANNOT be a ‘win win’ deal. It is a zero sum game of trade/politics’ we want a trade deal, the EU does not want to lose out on the politics. They are prepared to gamble all on the integrity of the EU as paramount.

  • Peter Divey

    I am increasingly doubtful that any meaningful Brexit will actually occur. The majority of MP’s do not want it and the Civil Service is pathalogically opposed.

  • Peter Divey

    If re-entering the EU is at the core of a Labour manifesto there would be no need for ref 2 if they prevailed at a GE.

  • Peter Divey

    Ideology is defeating sense. The EU crushed and humiliated Greece and expects to have its way likewise with the UK. The UK under May is acting like Greece at the moment…no need to.

  • Peter Divey

    It is stupidity of this type which is collapsing the centrist vote. Chasing the younger voter seems to be causing a failure of critical thinking.

  • Peter Divey

    Nail. Head.

  • Peter Divey

    If Brexit is as you describe, and that seems more than probable, it is of course not really Brexit at all…and the judgement that the Tories no longer deserve your vote would be logical.

  • Peter Divey

    The PM said “Brexit means Brexit”…she probably regrets that utterance now and seems to be trying to walk out of the corner that she thinks she has painted herself into…unfortunately she seems to have fallen prey to Project Fear.

  • fred finger

    There is no reason why labour has to have a national referendum to rejoin the EU.

  • Once Brexit is over, one way or the other, I don’t see there being a lot of appetite on either side for another fight. A weak, almost certainly minority Corbyn government would be consumed for its entire term to the detriment of all else, just as May’s weak minority government is right now. Once it’s over, even the noisiest continuity remainers will have to accept that they lost and are now the feeble, irrelevant minority we Brexiteers once were, only without the romantic “struggle for freedom” schtick.

    If the Lib-Dems continue to be a left wing anti-UKIP, their voter base will only continue to shrink further.

  • AdamS

    Fine with the analysis but Labour will not be bring the UK back in the EU any time soon as the next election is 2022 by which time the UK will have left, it would require another referendum to re-join and, as you say, the terms and conditions would undoubtedly be worse than before (join the Euro, implement Schengen, higher membership fee etc.). The challenge for the UK is that we have a manager not a leader as PM and so progress will be on a best efforts basis rather than a strategic basis which will mean the UK will get a worse deal than we would have had with a better leader.

  • Bosanova

    Well said and quite right. Time for May to dig her heals in and be obstreperous.
    Every time the EU ask for a divorce payment perhaps we ought to ask back how much the Canadians paid for the “privilege” of signing CETA. Because the answer is nil. A trade deal is agreed because it is mutually beneficial. Not because one side is prepared to pay in advance for all the supposed (and potentially uncertain) benefits in advance. Can someone tell me when we expect to recoup (via trade with the EU) the 53billion? It’s an Net Present Value calculation – I do hope our gone-EU-native civil service posses the necessary calculator.

  • fred finger

    Not certain where Cleggies devotion to the EU comes from; my cynical side says gold plated EU pension which he would like to enclarge perhaps.

  • fred finger

    Mike Gapes on the Foreign affairs committee 7th Nov, used the words ‘if we leave’ several times. Also Starmer idea of leaving is; in the ECJ, in the Customs Union, in the Single market. Does not sound like leaving to me.

  • OwlHoot

    > By their own measure the EU has said that at best it has increased UK GDP by one per cent

    Sounds plausible, and I believe you. But when discussing this with Remainers on other forums, who quibble with and dispute every fact, it always helps to have references. So in future similar articles, a reference to facts like this would be useful

  • IanE

    This waiting for older voters to die is one of the daftest memes out there – people change their world-view as they get older : which applies now as in the past; the young get middle-aged, acquire some smarts and some experience, and then gradually shift towards the Tories AND towards Brexit. Accordingly, as the years go by and our country’s demographics shift towards older voters, so the voter balance will, inexorably, shift towards Brexit. Sorry, Vince, and sorry, Cleggy, but your analysis is as naive as the young and indoctrinated are until they have experienced real life!

  • Masakatsu Agatsu

    Brilliantly put, but I agree with Mojo, below. Writing as a life long Conservative voter, I might add that if after Brexit we are still having to submit to EU courts, law and charters, and have compromised our opportunity to forge our own trading links with the rest of the world, then I won’t be voting Conservative again.

  • Mojo

    Well said. But I think Mrs May never listens to anyone other than her Remainer echo chamber

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