November 14, 2017

May’s Brexit pledge is meaningless

May’s Brexit pledge is meaningless

Theresa May’s pledge to enshrine a leave date in law is no more secure than her premiership, says Peter Divey.

The article in the Telegraph by the PM last week was timely. Brexit under my watch is a certainty. It needed saying. Clear blue water between this May Government and a posturing opposition. We are the only Brexit Party. An amendment to enshrine a leaving date in law was another flag in the ground. This offer to the electorate can never be any more sure footed than the PM’s own position or that of her Party. It all comes down to what you think PM May’s version of leaving actually means. Real or illusory?

The message is also sent EU wide. They will receive it loud and clear.  We are leaving, this Lady is not for turning. A good tactic to counter the EU strategy of always cranking up the pressure as Davis and Barnier meet. This time they have rolled out a hard border in Northern Ireland, again, and a time limit for “clarification” over the Brexit bill. Money, money, money, it’s a rich man’s world…i always recall that Abba jingle whenever the EU return to this worn out trope. Transition may not be agreed if we do not pay up. Good, that’s £18 billion saved. A Brexit bill will be paid unfortunately, and it will be multi-billion pound massive. But less than the EU hoped for. I wouldn’t pay a penny. Neither side will be satisfied and i suppose that is the art of the deal.

Even now many seek to reverse or block Brexit. On both sides of the channel. Everyone on the European side of course respects the British vote, it is democracy after all, and then having said that will lambast and nullify the result in every way possible. The British voter was conned basically. Sheep unable to think for themselves. The latest EU tactic is to question the survival and credibility of this Government, the very Government they are engaging with in good faith. May will be gone by Christmas, Corbyn will sweep in soon after so we better talk to his Generals. It is an open invitation to the British people to remove May and the Tories and together the EU and the Labour Government can revoke Brexit. Is that not what you secretly want? Heseltine is encouraging this foolishness by openly saying that Corbyn is preferable to Brexit and he is minded to vote for him. The EU would of course never interfere, let alone comment on another EU nations democracy and sovereignty. Just ask the Catalan’s. Unless you are Britain, or one of the Visegrad Four. Even the old news that article 50 is in fact reversible has been wheeled out once more. Just in case we had forgotten, or wish to change our minds.

This idea that the Tory Government is about to topple is funny coming from the EU. Italy is known to produce exemplary and stable leadership. The Dutch have now formed an official Government, it only took 208 days. Nothing to do with keeping Geert Wilders and his Party away from the levers of power, never mind that they are the second biggest representation in Parliament. You do not disenfranchise his voters when you engage in stitch-ups of this type apparently. Austria may have cobbled a Government together by Christmas we are told, certainly by the New Year. Austria was told by the EU that it was duty bound to form a pro-Europe leadership. But they never interfere. Unless it suits.

Will trade talks begin in December? Maybe, but the British need to offer just that little bit more, after all it is only “peanuts”. Sufficient progress is only measured on the newly invented Merkel/Macron scale, a very sensitive instrument and procedure. It is unable to recognise any unit smaller than one billion Sterling and works best when it is nearly overloaded.

But of course sufficient progress is not the real reason that EU talks are held up. Where did this mythical December date for final judgement come from? it sprang out of the German election cycle. It was the date by which Merkel’s re-coronation should have been confirmed. Merkel is now  much weaker than May, hobbled by those pesky right wing voters. Her potential coalition partners are having the temerity to expect something meaningful for their support. A re-run of the election is risky as her support could collapse further. Without Merkel’s heft the EU is unsure how to proceed. Stall. Blame the unreasonable Brits. Deflect. Please hurry up Angela!

In Merkel’s absence Macron has stepped up and not everyone is happy. Macron is throwing out proposals like confetti. The EU is weak he recently said, in need of urgent reform, and it is only through his plans that the EU can improve. He is the new saviour. An Irish politician has been moaning about being abandoned by the UK, smaller countries now open to the whims of Germany and France without the counterbalancing gravitas of the UK. He is gaining a belated new perspective about his beloved EU. It might only last a week but you could almost think Merkel and May have swopped roles, and neither Merkel or the EU will like it. Why hasn’t Britain folded yet? The saga will drag on as long as Britain keeps posting the cheques but at least, even if temporarily, this Government has shown a measure of resolve. More please.

 

4.60 avg. rating (91% score) - 15 votes
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Peter Divey

Peter Divey’s dormant interest in British and American politics has been reawakened by last year’s Brexit referendum result and Trump’s ascendency to the White House. In his spare time he enjoys playing chess and has a growing collection of vintage wrist watches.

  • Peter Divey

    That is not exactly what i am saying on this occasion. In fact the PM has made a principled stand but she might find herself undermined by the Tory Remain faction. If she has enough strength and backing it will be meaningful.

  • here’s looking at you kid

    May spouts meaningless rubbish?
    No change there then.
    Much like most of her vapid claptrap.
    Garbage in, garbage out, just like any robot.

  • fred finger

    The amounts are known to a reasonable degree, the auditors are just playing safe. If they signed them off they would be liable, some amounts are not fully accounted for, so they use that as the excuse for not signing.

  • Peter Divey

    But there must be…how do they know how much to charge for the Brexit bill otherwise? Surely they are not making it all up…I knew about the accounts. Seriously, look at the comment by RingedPlover, this is how worn down Leavers have become, losing faith.

  • fred finger

    The accounts have not been signed of for the past 22 years while we are members.

  • Peter Divey

    The accounts will never be signed off if we leave…

  • Peter Divey

    RP This is the great worry. Still 50/50 i think. Certainly most MP’s and especially the Civil Service machinery behind Govt. would rather it all just went away. Trying to find a procedure that they can justify to the electorate is tricky…or maybe they will just brazen it out. If we do leave Labour may just take us back in. Many twists and turns yet.

  • fred finger

    “They could always spend less and cut their cloth according to the new requirements” they do not have a record for doing that. In fact they have always asked for more. Even when their budget is voted down the backup point in the treaties gives them the previous budget value plus inflation.

  • RingedPlover

    Rightly or wrongly I am assuming that we won’t leave the EU. No idea how it will happen but convinced we won’t. Unless I’m missing something, no-one seems particularly interested in getting us out. The one saving grace is that I was able to vote to Leave to make up for voting to stay in the Common Market..

  • fred finger

    Remember just as there was never going to be an EU armed force (the agreement was signed on monday) just as Clegg told Farage categorically, the news of a tax will be whispered in corridors in Brussels until ……………………..

  • Peter Divey

    Of course…just thinking of the usual EU tactic of delaying bad news, kicking the can down the road, which they can do with a hefty Brexit bill. They could always spend less and cut their cloth according to the new requirements? But can they do it?

  • fred finger

    There need for money is such that the tax is likely whether we are still in or not.

  • Peter Divey

    No problem FF. The EU keep shouting about their unity, which means there are of course strains. Exploiting them would be logical. I do not believe in the Cliff Edge, but we shall see….

  • Peter Divey

    Health and safety rules probably, following a thorough risk assessment.

  • Peter Divey

    When the manure hits the fan militarily…and it will someday…who will Europe look to? Nato/UK methinks.

  • Peter Divey

    Thanks for that FF…”almost insatiable”…This EU income tax will go down a storm, or you get a meek UK to pay for as long as possible.

  • fred finger

    When they were in Afghanistan they had to be back in barracks by 6pm, I kid you not.

  • fred finger

    It is not a Ponzi scheme, it is nothing like it. However, what is true, is that its ambitions can only be obtained by obtaining more money. In this aspect it is amost insatiable. So far it has not made it public how it will get it, but the suspicion is a EU income tax. That is an additional tax, like they have in the US, where you pay your federal taxes and then pay a local sales tax.

  • DAWWolds

    There was an article in Der Spiegel a few weeks ago about the state of the German army. If that is what the EU has to reply on heaven help them. That said, it is all that they deserve.

  • fred finger

    Thanks for writing articles, but I have to agree/disagree with you. I agree the lack of gumption, but my idea is to feel into the dark and see if there really is a cliff edge there. If the EU as a total entity blinks, we may find that we can get a smooth deal anyway.

    I do not see the EU as one entity, there are many factions which we should exploit. For instance the many minnow countries are desperate for our money, which they know the rich states do not want to make up. So they may combine to force the Council to take a different stance.

  • Peter Divey

    Nick Clegg is a man of honour, there will be no EU Army, I will bet my EU pension on it…oops!

  • getahead

    Most of the public are convinced that the EU is a waste of space. It is those who personally benefit from membership, or at least are in the pocket of someone who personally benefits from membership, like many MPs, who are fighting the referendum result.

  • Peter Divey

    Throughout this whole Brexit saga John Redwood has been a consistent voice of sanity. Of course we should turn the tables…a dose of their own medicine might help the Brexit Bill go down…to nothing.

  • Peter Divey

    No one has the gumption it seems…that Cliff Edge is far too terrifying!

  • Peter Divey

    This Ponzi scheme analogy is being wheeled out more and more…must be something in it. More money following bad money never works.

  • Peter Divey

    Thank you JR. Every one is mystified except for Soubry, Hammond…a long list. If the French realise it’s daft the game really should be up!

  • Widggget

    As John Redwood said earlier, we should turn the tables on the EU and give them two weeks to talk trade or walk out and revert to WTO rules. I can’t believe how inept this government is at negotiations, and how abysmal it is in neutralising the fake news barrage from Brussels.

  • fred finger

    I do feel sorry for DD, as I am sure he would like to play harder, but imagine the situation from most of Parliament when he drops that one. May does not want to see us sour relationship with the EU. Personally I do not think it would take much to poke and get a reaction from the EU, which would show the public the type of EU we are dealing with. Once the public are convinced that the EU are a waste of space you could take the majority of parliament with you.

  • grumpyashell

    Just leave now,by watching the EU tactics it is plain they want to draw it out to extort money from us…they need it,we do not have to pay a thing…the EU is a giant Ponzi scheme and without huge amounts of cash going into it…it will fail

  • Jolly Radical

    I always appreciate Peter Divey’s articles. They’re a good reminder of how absurdly surreal the “negotiaton” actually is. Even my French friends are mystified at why the UK govt doesn’t walk away from the charade!

  • fred finger

    Need the reverse done to the EU; that being ask the question, ‘Do you really mean you want a deal, or are you dragging it out for us to get a punishment beating, prove beyond all doubt you are sincere’. That would be an interesting stance to take.

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